If you have been waiting for budget and midrange phones to get cheaper through 2026, the news is bad, and it has nothing to do with the phones themselves. The cost of the memory inside them is climbing. IDC analysts expect that to push smartphone prices up by roughly 6 to 8% this year, with the cheapest phones hit hardest (mobiletechworld.com, 2026).

The cause is the AI data center boom. Every chip of high-bandwidth memory that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron produce is being pulled toward server farms, leaving consumer electronics to scrap over what is left. TrendForce's Q3 2026 forecast confirms DRAM contract prices will grow 13 to 18% quarter on quarter, while NAND will be up another 10 to 15%. Mobile DRAM is up more than 70% since the start of last year, with NAND roughly doubling (91mobiles.com, 2026).

Why are midrange phones hit hardest?

On a £1,000 flagship, RAM and storage are a small slice of the bill of materials, so a memory price rise barely registers. On a £250 phone, memory is a much bigger share of the cost, so the same rise either pushes the price up or forces the maker to cut the spec. Omdia research shows memory costs for sub-$400 phones in Q1 2026 accounted for 59% of the total bill-of-materials cost, up from 32% in Q3 2025 (Android Authority, 2026).

59%Share of a sub-$400 phone's bill-of-materials taken up by memory in Q1 2026, up from 32% in Q3 2025

The 4GB RAM regression

TrendForce warned that budget base models are heading back to 4GB of RAM, a standard the industry had comfortably left behind for 6GB and 8GB. OnePlus launched the OnePlus N6 in India at Rs 22,999 with 4GB of RAM, a price point that bought 8GB in 2025. OEMs' internal numbers reportedly account for an over 25% jump in DRAM cost per phone this year, and one fix on the table is shipping a lower memory configuration as the new base variant (91mobiles.com, 2026).

  • DRAM contract prices: up 13-18% quarter on quarter in Q3 2026
  • NAND contract prices: up another 10-15% quarter on quarter
  • Mobile DRAM: up more than 70% since the start of 2025
  • Average smartphone bill of materials: up around 25% in 2026 from memory alone

Should you buy now or wait?

Buy now if you need a phone and have found 8GB of RAM and decent update support at a price you are happy with. Waiting for a price that is forecast to rise is a bad trade. Wait only if your current phone genuinely still does the job, because the wait will not save you money this year. The one thing you should not do is stretch to a flagship to "future-proof" against price rises (mobiletechworld.com, 2026).

In 2026, check the RAM before you check almost anything else on a budget phone. RAM is the spec the memory squeeze is quietly attacking.

— mobiletechworld.com

What is the value benchmark?

The Nothing Phone (3a) at £299 for the 8GB/128GB model is the number to beat. At £299 you get 8GB of RAM, which is the floor you should accept for a phone you intend to keep three or four years. Anything cheaper in 2026 deserves a hard look at the RAM line before you spend, because the memory squeeze is exactly where corners will be cut quietly (mobiletechworld.com, 2026).

Sources and further reading

#smartphones#memory shortage#DRAM#midrange

Bottom line

The Nothing Phone (3a) at £299 for the 8GB/128GB model is the number to beat. At £299 you get 8GB of RAM, which is the floor you should accept for a phone you intend to keep three or four years. Anything cheaper in 2026 deserves a hard look at the RAM line before you spend, because the memory squeeze is exactly where corners will be cut quietly (mobiletechworld.com, 2026).

What we still don't know

This is a fast-moving story. We update the post as new facts land — and we'll flag it when we do.

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